Gerald Weinberg's Secrets of Writing and Consulting

How Long Can I Remain a [Ruby, Java, C++, Python, …]  Programmer?

Several respondents to an earlier post have asked me about the future prospects for workers in one programming language or another. Here's my best answer.

As others have said, "I can predict anything but the future." But also others have said that the only things we know about the future are what we know from the past. Therefore, you might get some idea of your future as a [Ruby …] programmer from the answers to a recent Quora question, "What were some jobs which existed 50 years ago but have largely disappeared today?"

It was great fun reading all these answers, many of which described jobs I held back then. I go back a bit more than 50 years, though, so I have a few more to add. Most obvious omission was the iceman. In the 1930s, we had an icebox (not a refrigerator, but an actual box that held a block of ice). The iceman’s horse-drawn wagon would come around regularly and be surrounded by us kids, hoping to get free shards of ice caused when he cut up little blocks to fit our iceboxes.

Another job only briefly mentioned was typesetting. I never held that job, but I was trained for manual typesetting for a semester in high school. At least I know where terms like upper-case and lower-case come from.

Someone also mentioned keypunch operator, a task (not a job) that was often done by prisoners who were literally chained to their machines. Who weren't mentioned, however, were key verifier operators. Not many people today have ever seen a verifier, let alone even know what one was.

Even before my time, there were jobs that disappeared, but which I read about—for instance, in a nineteenth century book about jobs for women. The final two chapters in the book were about a couple of sure-fire women’s jobs for the future (1900 was then the future).

First chapter was about teletype operators. The chapter “proved” that there was a great future for women because they could operate a telegraph key at least as fast as men (and the telephone had yet to be invented).

Second chapter was about picture tinters. There was, of course, no color photography, and it wasn’t really even conceived of. Women were supposedly much better at coloring photos because of their “artistic bent” and their more delicate hands. Though there are a few photo tinters still around today for special jobs, it’s not a career with a great future.

By the way, one future job for women that wasn't even mentioned in the book was typist (or amenuensis) in spite of the then recent exciting invention of the typewriter. Other sources explained that women would never be typists because everyone knew that women were not good with machines.

It's fun to think about these forgotten jobs, but they're also a source of important knowledge, or perhaps even wisdom. Job disappearance is not some new phenomenon caused by computers. It's always gone on through history. True, some jobs lasted a long time, so long that they were passed down from generation to generation, even becoming family names, such as Smith, Turner, Eisenhower, Baker, and Miller. (See, for example, <surnames.behindthename.com> for hundreds of examples)

Some of those jobs still exist, though often modified by new technology. Do you still recognize Fuller, Chandler, or Ackerman? And many others have largely disappeared, remaining only in some special niche, like photo tinters. Do you know anybody named Armbruster who still makes crossbows? Well, you probably know a few Coopers, but how many of them still make barrels?

No job is guaranteed. Nothing entitles you to hold the same job for life, let alone pass the job down to your children. So, for example, if you think of yourself as a "[Ruby…] Programmer," perhaps you'd better prepare yourself for future with a more general job description, such as "programmer" or "problem-solver."

In fact, there's a whole lot of people out there who think (or hope) the job of "programmer" will disappear one of these days. Some of them have been building apps since the time of COBOL that would "eliminate programmers." I've mocked these overblown efforts for half a century, but history has tried to teach me to be a bit more humble. Whether or not they succeed in your lifetime, you might want to hedge your bets and keep learning additional skills. Perhaps in your lifetime we'll still need problem-solvers and leaders long after we've forgotten the need for Chamberlains and Stringers.

Additional reading: 

Understanding the Professional Programmer

The Psychology of Computer Programming

Becoming a Technical Leader