Guaranteeing a Consulant's Future

I'm frequently asked, "What is the best thing a consultant can do to guarantee his or her future?"

Start by recognizing that there's no way to guarantee anything about the future. If a giant asteroid hits the earth, I doubt that many consultants will survive.

A giant asteroid may be unlikely, but, for example, a giant world-wide Depression is a possibility we've already experienced more than once.

"What about joining one of the large, established consulting firms?"

Yes, there's a certain stability in an established firm, but nothing guaranteed. Lots of consultants get themselves fired from such firms, and the firms themselves sometime fold.

The same dangers apply to founding your own firm. There's some safety in numbers, but no guarantees. By and large, you have to take care of your own future for yourself. There's a few strong things any consultant can do to help ensure their future, but again, nothing is guaranteed.

Definitely save your money. Although you cannot absolutely guarantee anybody’s future, having financial resources will come as close as anybody can come.

Money in the bank will even guarantee your present—protecting you from the temptation to take the kind of unwholesome assignments that kill a consulting practice.

However, there’s one thing even more important than money. Health. Make it your first priority to do whatever you need to do to remain healthy.

Think of it this way: You are the number one tool of your consulting business, so never compromise your health for your business. You cannot receive a second body to replace the one you were given, so take care.

The Secrets of Consulting

Advice to New Graduates

It's now graduation season, time to give advice to new graduates entering the world of work. Every few years, I notice the season and republish some old, but still valid, advice I offered my youngest son, many seasons ago.

Letter to My Son, John

(On the occasion of his graduation with a degree in computer science)

Dear John,

I know some of the other fathers are giving their sons BMWs for graduation, but as a fresh computer science graduate, you're probably going to be earning more than I do as a writer.

It's not totally dishonorable being a writer. Last month, when Dani and I were in Hannibal, Missouri, we visited Mark Twain's birthplace. They've made it into a museum, and it seems to attract a lot of tourists.

Before computer scientists came along, writers used to be pretty famous, and some of them even got rich. So save this letter. You may not appreciate the advice, but someday you might be able to donate it to a museum.

On the wall of the museum, under an old photograph of his schoolhouse, was this quotation from one of Twain's letters:

"I was always careful never to let my schooling interfere with my education."

Being an old-timer in computer science myself, I didn't have to be as careful as Mark Twain. When I went to school, there was no such thing as computer science. There wasn't even a computer—unless you count me (that was my job title).

I made 90 cents an hour inverting matrices for the physics department, using a clunky old Friden, paper, pencil, and lots of erasers. No, I'm not going to advise you to complete your education by inverting some 10 by 10 matrices with a Friden. If I wanted to build your character, I'd buy you a hair shirt for graduation.

Subject Matter

I did want to tell you how lucky you were to have such fine schooling as part of your education. I hope that the next stage of your education will be half as good, which it ought to be, if only you can stay out of the trouble I got into when I was a fresh graduate.

The problems I caused myself weren't due to things I didn't learn in my schooling. As another great American humorist, Will Rogers, said, "It's not what you don't know that gets you in trouble, it's what you know that ain't so."

If my experience is any guide, there are a few parts of your schooling you may want to forget before you report for your first job.

The first and easiest thing you'll have to forget is all the specific facts you learned in your technical courses. If you had majored in Greek grammar, or in the history of rural Belgium in the Middle Ages, you wouldn't have to forget all the facts you so patiently memorized. In some subjects, the facts haven't changed in the past few generations, but you certainly can't say that for Computer Science.

Did you ever stop to think why Computer Science graduates are paid so much more than Greek or History majors? Did you think it was because of the scraggly black beard or your long fingernails? Well, it's not.

It's because Computer Science is high technology—and that means the entire subject matter is changing even as you read these words. The history student is being paid a pittance to remember a body of relatively fixed material, but you're being paid that fabulous salary largely because of your ability to keep pace with innumerable rapid changes.

Being a specialist in information processing, you should be able to understand the process that led to the information you found in your textbooks.  A fact that you found in your freshman textbook would be four years old by now even if it was brand new when you were wearing a beanie. But the book was probably two years old or more by that time, which makes it at least six years out of date.

And you also have to consider that a book takes about a year to publish after it is written, and perhaps two years to write in the first place. You can conservatively add another year for the author's inability to keep up with the latest in new technology.

That makes a nice round ten years for the age of the facts you learned as a freshman. It's not much better for what you learned as a senior—and could be worse, because advanced texts take longer to write, longer to publish, and are too expensive to keep updating every couple of years. Just how long is 10 years of computer technology? Well, I read the other day about the resale value of some System 370 models IBM introduced (ten years ago). Back then, they sold for about $3 million. Today, their book value is exactly zero. The big argument is whether to pay people for hauling them away or to call it even for the scrap value.

IBM used quite a bit of gold and silver in the connectors in these models, which accounts for any value they still have. So, unless you're in collecting precious metals, don't start your career in an organization whose computer is ten years old, either. Keep your gold fillings, but forget whatever facts you learned in school.

But don't worry. It's not so hard to forget facts. Psychological studies show that 24 hours after a lecture, you've forgotten half the facts presented. In the succeeding days, this halving process continues unabated.The same thing happens after an exam—as you certainly must have learned by now.

Once in a while, though, in spite of your best efforts to forget everything, something you learned in school will pop into your head. In that case, just keep it to yourself. The last thing you want to do on your new job is to go broadcasting your ignorance to your coworkers. Instead, close your mouth and open your ears. You might learn something that's new to replace the obsolete fact—which is even better than forgetting.

Grades

Telling your coworkers about all the facts you learned in school is almost as bad as telling them about your grade point average. I know it's hard to accept—especially after all the emphasis on grades the past 16 years of your life—but now that you've landed a job, nobody is interested in your college grades.

But forgetting your grade point average isn't nearly enough. You must also forget everything you know about grades and grading. Business is not school. You may be "graded" on your job, but it won't be on the same basis you were graded on at school.

For instance, when you wrote that little assembler for ComSci 321, you didn't have time to finish the macro facility. So you turned in a partially finished job for a B-plus.

Or that time the micro you designed for ComSci 442 gave the wrong remainder on floating point division. You took an A-minus and were glad to be rid of the thing.

Those strategies don't work on the job. There are no B-plusses for partially completed projects. And no A-minusses for hardware or software with bugs. On the job, you finish your tasks and you finish them right, or you flunk.

Or maybe you think you can take an Incomplete like you did when you didn't want to stop working on that really interesting flow tracer. Or the time you spaced off the last program in advanced programming. Well, forget Incompletes, too.

Specific Plans

If you have a good boss and you're sufficiently interested in something to want to continue working on it, you'll probably be allowed to do it—on your own time—and only after you've turned in the project as assigned. As far as other reasons for Incompletes, forget them.

If you flunk, you won't have to worry about going in to argue with the boss about getting a higher grade. Your boss will call you in before you get a chance.

But don't waste your time preparing arguments for raising your grade. Instead, prepare specific plans for finishing the project or getting rid of the bugs. And also prepare plans for improving your performance on the next assignment. If you don't there may be no next assignment.

Oh, you're not likely to get fired—not in today's business world. More likely, you'll get trivial assignments—and keep getting them until you can prove you're capable of finishing something correctly and on time.

There are no A and B grades. Only A and B assignments. Your college grade average might earn you an A assignment for your first project, but it will never earn you a second.

I know it's a bit frightening to learn that you must get an A on every assignment, but once you've mastered the art of "cheating," it's not nearly as bad as it sounds. Actually, the sound of the word "cheat" is the biggest barrier you'll have to overcome. I don't mean it in the sense of "cheating on your wife" or "cheating at cards," but more in the sense of "cheating death."

By "cheating," I mean going outside the rules that previously bound your thinking. Some instructors say it's cheating to solve an exam problem using a method that wasn't taught in class, or even by looking up the answer. In fact, some instructors still consider it cheating if you use a computer to help you solve your homework! But on the job, you're being paid to use any method that works.

You've spent the past 16 years of your life learning to play by the teacher's rules. Now you're expected to invent your own rules, and you're going to find it difficult to use "any method that works." But once you manage to forget about teachers and their rules, you'll find that this kind of cheating is as natural as drinking beer on a warm summer day.

More natural, actually. Drinking beer is an acquired taste, but breaking the rules is the natural heritage of every human being. Indeed, our superior cheating ability is what differentiates us human beings from all the other animals.

A fox is supposed to be a cunning hunter, but human beings can outhunt any fox that ever lived. How? By cheating, that's how. They "cheat" by getting other people to help them and by using tools invented by other people. You may not call those things cheating, but they sure look like cheating to the fox.

The reason you don't consider cooperation and use of tools as cheating is that you're a human being, not a fox. Your teachers had to forbid "cheating" in school in order to create an environment for teaching facts (which you'll have to forget) and giving grades (which are now worthless). They had to make you forget, temporarily, the basic ability that makes you human—the ability to cooperate.

On the job, you'd better remember your humanity. You don't sign an "honor code" saying you have neither given nor received help. On the contrary, if your boss sees you never help anyone else, or haven't the brains to ask for help when you don't know something, you'll be severely downgraded. If you do everything from scratch and fail to use the simplest shortcuts you can find, you'll be consider an ox, not a fox.

It's actually not that hard to work effectively with other people, even after all those years of isolation. Outside the classroom, where most learning takes place, you have plenty of practice getting and giving help—study groups, team projects, or just those endless conversations over cold coffee in the Union. You may have thought you were just wasting time, but you were actually practicing for the world of work.

Well, I know that's a lot of stuff to forget in so short a time, but I know you can do it if you set your mind to it. Underneath that schoolboy exterior, there beats the heart and throbs the brain of a real human being.

Before you know it, you'll have forgotten all that schooling and gotten on with the business of your education. Good luck!

Love, Dad.

If you're a consultant, or want to be, you need to read this blog by my colleague, Tonya Price: 

5 Ways Writing a Book Builds Your Consulting Business

I agree with all of Tonya's 5 points, and I'd like to point out one other way writing a book helps you become a successful consultant. Writing a book is not a one-way street, sending ideas from you to clients and prospects. Writing a book is a way for you to learn new ideas and new ways of expressing your ideas.

In my experience, if I want to learn some new material, the best way to do that is to write a book about it. Even if I never publish the book—even if I never even finish it—and don't achieve Tonya's five benefits, I still benefit by becoming a better consultant.

So, even if you're afraid that you don't write well enough to be a successful author, you ought to start writing a book about something you'd like to better understand. And, a good first step is to take advantage of the Write Stuff 2016 bundle of ebooks.

 

Writers Are Losing the Fight Again

Dean Wesley Smith has written another scathing post about "agents" trying to scam writers in "the new world of publishing." Please read it: http://www.deanwesleysmith.com/?p=4096&cpage=2#comment-9194



It's a terrific post, which it has in common with all Dean's posts, but this time he made one little mistake, so I had to write a comment on his blog.

But there are so many comments (as there should be, and you should read them all), you might miss mine, so I'm repeating it here.


Dean,

I’ve been thinking about this whole scheme and decided it’s not a scam at all. It’s actually a terrific idea, with only one slight flaw.

All that it needs to make it a fair deal is to make it symmetrical. In particular, the agents have the right idea about expenses. This is a business, and it’s quite right that the partners in such a deal should be reimbursed for their expenses before any royalties are distributed.

So, I’m looking for an agent who will write a contract with me where s/he gets expenses and so do I. Let’s see, what are my expenses?

Well, there’s toner for my printer.

And several reams of paper.

And the printer itself.

And the computer.

And the software.

And my office, and its furnishings.

Let’s see. What have I forgotten. Oh yes, there’s about 20 years of schooling so I could learn how to write. Let’s figure conservatively about $50,000 per year. It’s probably a lot more, but we don’t want to take advantage of the poor agent, so we just have $50,000 times 20, which seems to come to $1,000,000 before I could write a word.

Now of course, my schooling was a long time ago, so if I hadn’t spent that money learning how to write, I could have put it into US Treasury bonds and easily earned, say, 6% on the average. And I finished my schooling roughly 50 years ago, which means the $1,000,000 would have doubled roughly 4 times since then, making $16,000,000 today.

Don’t you just love this calculating “expenses”? (That's an important part of the new agent scam contract.)

The way I figure is I’d happily sign with an agent who’d give me $16,000,000 up front to cover my expenses.

Or, since I’ve published roughly 100 books, I’d be willing to take $160,000 up front from any agent wanting to contract with me to handle a book of mine.

So, agents, if you’re reading this, better hurry and get your cash in hand and contact me before all those other agents beat you to the punch.

Yes, Dean, I’m sorry, but you’re just going to have to write a retraction saying what a good deal these new agent ideas are for writers. Agents, please insist on it.

Oh, and by the way, here are two of my most recent eBooks, which you can sample at http://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/JerryWeinberg?ref=JerryWeinberg and purchase them there, or at Amazon or Barnes and Noble.

"Smashwords vs. Kindle?" Are Your Lights On?

Yesterday, Don Gause and I posted out book on problem definition, Are Your Lights On?—a book many have called a "classic."

Today, I ran across a perfect example of why the lessons in the book are so useful. On one of the writers' forums in which I participate, a reader posted a query entitled Smashwords vs. Kindle? Here it is:



Gemma, a writer, asks:

Can someone tell me what the benefits or advantages of publishing on Smashwords might be when Amazon, the number five most visited site in the USA, (according to Alexa.com) provides such a successful solution and so much higher traffic? To compare, Smashwords ranks 2,751 in terms of daily traffic. Amazon's "query popularity" is 86 out of 100, versus only 38 out of 100 for Smashwords. Amazon visitors spend an average of eight minutes on the site and view 8.8 pages while Smashwords visitors spend six minutes on the site and view 6 pages.

Still, I have found the folks on this list to be a savvy bunch, so I suspect there must be some hidden advantages or benefits of which I am unaware. Can anyone who has published on Smashwords help me out by sharing some benefits? I am about ready to put up some titles on Amazon and had decided to stick exclusively to that platform and to B & N, but maybe I am cutting off potential sales by not posting on Smashwords.

Perhaps someone else has the answer already:

One of the things Are Your Lights On? teaches is to use all the information you have. In this case, I had an earlier answer from another author, "Linda."

Linda offered this answer:

Yes, Amazon offers worldwide traffic, but Smashwords offers retail eBook outlets that we do not get at Amazon.  My books are directly at Amazon Kindle.  And then I have also added a number of my books and my husband's at Smashwords to take advantage of the retail outlets they distribute to.  At Smashwords I opt out of Amazon, and will continue to do so.  But Smashwords has not only their direct website, but the books are sent to the ebook retailers-- Kobo, Nook, Diesel, IPad, etc.  I love being able to check daily on my Kindle sales and be paid monthly by Kindle.  Royalty payments and sales via the Smashword's distributors are slower, depending on the retailer.

So the advantage is having more retail distribution (and hopefully sales) by putting your books at Smashwords, in addition to having them at Amazon Kindle.

Even good answers may not be complete.

Are Your Lights On? teaches:

"If you can't think of at least three things that might be wrong with your understanding of the problem, you don't understand the problem."

Well, I really liked Linda's answer, but applying the Rule of Three, thought about how it could be improved.


Jerry adds to Linda's answer:


First of all, listen to Linda. She and her husband use exactly the same strategy Dani and I use. [Note from AYLO: Answers don't just have to be right, they have to be convincing. Supporting Linda's excellent answer is the first job a consultant has to do to be effective in this case.]

So, my first answer to Gemma is this: You've done your research, and done it well, but the data you've gotten happens to be irrelevant to this problem. The traffic each site receives doesn't really matter. What matters is selling books. Suppose Site A receives 1000 hits/day, and the average stay is 10 clicks, and they sell one book per day. Site B receives 10 hits per day, and the average stay is 1 click, and they sell two books per day. Which is better for you, the writer, A or B?
The answer is "none of the above." Why, because you don't have to choose. You can put your book on both A and B's sites, and sell three books.

On to the details:

Once you have the right problem definition, the solution is often trivial, as above. Since I can't verify my assumptions about Gemma's problem definition, I can add some other facts to support various definitions, such as,

1. A book sold at Smashwords gets a higher royalty than the same book sold at Kindle. For each $7 of Kindle royalty, the same sales on Smashwords earn $8.

2. Smashwords, as Linda says, distributes to many retail outlets that would be a pain to reach individually, and perhaps not worth the small sales they generate. Through SW, I reach them with zero extra effort.

3. In addition to extra retailers, I reach readers who don't use Kindle. As Linda says, SW formats automatically for just about every eReader known to humanity, again, at zero extra effort.

4. I don't know how many SW sales I would have through Amazon if SW weren't available, but I do know that through SW, I earn about 2/3 of what I earn through Kindle, so instead of, say, $1,000 through Kindle, I earn about $1,666 through the combined offering. (plus another $100 or so through Barnes and Noble, which you should also use.)

5. SW has a "coupon" feature that Amazon doesn't offer. That allows me to offer special price deals for a day, a week, a month, or whatever period of time I wish, for whatever price I wish. Very useful for marketing, and for reviewers. On Kindle/Amazon, a price change takes about three days to start, and three days to remove, and is seen by the whole world. On SW, the change takes place instantly, and can be removed instantly. I can offer it to one person, or 10, or 100, or to the entire internet world. My choice.

6. And, if you offer a book on SW, you can pull the book(s) any time you want. So, if it turns out you don't like something about SW, you're out of the deal instantly, whenever you want--not cost, no fuss. It's totally under your control.


Bottom Line

Yes, the book-selling business can be complicated, but this one's probably a no-brainer when you have all the facts—if I have the right problem definition. In a real consulting situation, I'd be able to talk with Gemma and verify that I understand her problem. Since I don't have access to her, I'm guessing that her implicit problem definition is wrong from the start.

Gemma, I think it's not "Smashwords vs. Kindle," but "Smashwords and Kindle" (and Barnes and Noble, and any other sites you wish, as long as they don't restrict your publishing elsewhere).

Perhaps the definition would have been better stated: "How can I achieve the best sales results for my eBook?"

P.S.

You can sample Jerry's books on Smashwords, including Are Your Lights On?, then buy them there or at any other site you might prefer. See and sample all my books on Smashwords (more going up all the time).

Who Can Alienate Readers Better?

I'm an author who's old enough to remember when the people who ran "Big Publishing" were book people—people who had some fairly decent intuition about books and the people who read them (in other words, their products and their customers). My first book was published by McGraw-Hill They were the biggest of the big, but they treated me with respect. For example, when I spotted trouble on my royalty statement, the situation was handled personally by the company president (one of the McGraws).

Four McGraw-Hill books later, the company was having some trouble over a bogus Howard Hughes biography, and turned down every new project for a year—including my latest manuscript, The Psychology of Computer Programming. I was naive enough to be shocked that a publisher might turn down a good book, so thought I must have done something wrong. After moping for a year of self-doubt, I recovered sufficiently to circulate the book to four publishers and was offered a contract by each of them. I chose Van Nostrand.

A year later, when the printed book was delivered, I went down to NYC to receive my first copy from the hand of my editor (a ritual I had practiced with McGraw-Hill). When I suggested we go to my editor's office to sit down and talk, he told me he didn't have an office—because he had just been fired.

Turns out he'd been fired by the corporate executives for publishing my book. In the interval since contract signing, Van Nostrand had been purchased by Litton Industries, along with (as I recall) four other publishers. The idea was to convert publishing to a "proper" business model—and this was the first such acquisition/consolidation, the one that began this new era in the publishing industry.

This new model included taking editorial responsibility out of the hands of the editors (real book people) and putting it into the hands of the executives (real business people).

Apparently their business intuition told them the book wouldn't sell, but apparently that intuition didn't work. In spite of fantastic order fulfillment screw-ups (another byproduct of the acquisition/consolidation, but that's another story), The Psychology of Computer Programming outsold all other similar books in Van Nostrand's inventory. It's still selling (I got the rights back—another stupid business decision by the executives—and the book is still selling steadily after almost 40 years—over 250,000 copies in a dozen languages. (It will be out soon as an eBook.)

And, after 40 years, these business executive are still clueless about that "book business," as opposed to their "book business." If you don't believe that, watch them screwing up the eBook business in just about every imaginable way. (Nobody said they weren't creative.) For instance, here’s what MacMillan CEO John Sargent recently had to say about libraries and ebooks:

    "That is a very thorny problem”, said Sargent. In the past, getting a book from libraries has had a tremendous amount of friction. You have to go to the library, maybe the book has been checked out and you have to come back another time. If it’s a popular book, maybe it gets lent ten times, there’s a lot of wear and tear, and the library will then put in a reorder. With ebooks, you sit on your couch in your living room and go to the library website, see if the library has it, maybe you check libraries in three other states. You get the book, read it, return it and get another, all without paying a thing. “It’s like Netflix, but you don’t pay for it. How is that a good model for us?"

    "If there’s a model where the publisher gets a piece of the action every time the book is borrowed, that’s an interesting model." - from http://go-to-hellman.blogspot.com/2010/03/ebooks-in-libraries-thorny-problem-says.html

If you don't understand what's wrong with this statement, take a look at the article and comments, "Friday Alert: HarperCollins in cagematch with Macmillan to see who can alienate readers better." <http://dearauthor.com/wordpress/2011/02/25/friday-alert-harpercollins-in-cagematch-with-macmillan-to-see-who-can-alienate-readers-better/>

Or, if that's not helping, take a look at past history—for example, the reaction of the Western Union executives when the technology for voice-over-wire (telephone) became available. Or, study the music industry executives' bungling of the digital music scene.
Whichever example you choose, it's always the same pattern of response to new science or new technology: The people on top of the existing industry always try to stifle the new in order to preserve the old. They bungle, and that opens the door for all sorts of brash newcomers. Brash, that is, until they become the fat cats and play the same bungling role when the next innovation comes along—as it always does.

The only question is "Who will be the brash newcomers this time around?"

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Find my eBook novels and nonfiction listed at these stores

• Barnes and Noble bookstore: http://tinyurl.com/4eudqk5

• Amazon Store: http://amazon.com/-/e/B000AP8TZ8

• Apple Store: http://apple.com

• Smashwords Store:
http://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/JerryWeinberg?ref=JerryWeinberg
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Authors You May Not Know–Yet

The writing business is one of the most difficult to break into. (into which to break?) Excellent writing and story-telling are not sufficient to publicize your name and what you can do. I do my primary publicizing through my website:

http://www.geraldmweinberg.com

and through various book retailers such as Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Smashwords.

I also belong to a number of groups of aspiring writers, including one called Backlist Books. One of the ways we spread the word about ourselves is to exchange links to our blogs and/or websites. Below, I've placed a list of some of the backlist authors I like. There's a wide variety of genres, so take a look at them and see if there's anything to your taste. You'll be glad you did.


Doranna Durgin, http://doranna.net/wordplay

Marsha Canham, http://marshacanham.wordpress.com

Jacqueline Lichtenberg, http://aliendjinnromances.blogspot.com

Jeffrey A. Carver, http://starrigger.blogspot.com/

Jill Metcalf, http://jillmetcalf.wordpress.com

Terry Odell, http://terryodell.blogspot.com

Maryann Miller, http://its-not-all-gravy.blogspot.com/

Patricia Rice, http://patriciarice.blogspot.com

Pati Nagle, http://patinagle.livejournal.com/

Lorraine Bartlett or Lorna Barrett, http://www.LornaBarrett.blogspot.com

Karen Ranney, http://karenranney.wordpress.com

The Universal Pattern of Huge Software Losses

What Do Failures Cost?
Some perfectionists in software engineering are overly preoccupied with failure, and most others don't rationally analyze the value they place on failure-free operation. Nonetheless, when we do measure the cost of failure carefully, we generally find that great value can be added by producing more reliable software. In Responding to Significant Software Events, I give five examples that should convince you.

The national bank of Country X issued loans to all the banks in the country. A tiny error in the interest rate calculation added up to more than a billion dollars that the national bank could never recover.

A utility company was changing its billing algorithm to accommodate rate changes (a utility company euphemism for "rate increases"). All this involved was updating a few numerical constants in the existing billing program. A slight error in one constant was multiplied by millions of customers, adding up to X dollars that the utility could never recover. The reason I say "X dollars" is that I've heard this story from four different clients, with different values of X. Estimated losses ranged from a low of $42 million to a high of $1.1 billion. Given that this happened four times to my clients, and given how few public utilities are clients of mine, I'm sure it's actually happened many more times.

I know of the next case through the public press, so I can tell you that it's about the New York State Lottery. The New York State legislature authorized a special lottery to raise extra money for some worthy purpose. As this special lottery was a variant of the regular lottery, the program to print the lottery tickets had to be modified. Fortunately, all this involved was changing one digit in the existing program. A tiny error caused duplicate tickets to be printed, and public confidence in the lottery plunged with a total loss of revenue estimated between $44 million and $55 million.

I know the next story from the outside, as a customer of a large brokerage firm:
One month, a spurious line of $100,000.00 was printed on the summary portion of 1,500,000 accounts, and nobody knew why it was there. The total cost of this failure was at least $2,000,000, and the failure resulted from one of the simplest known errors in COBOL coding: failing to clear a blank line in a printing area.

I know this story, too, from the outside, as a customer of a mail-order company, and also from the inside, as their consultant. One month, a new service phone number for customer inquiries was printed on each bill. Unfortunately, the phone number had one digit incorrect, producing the number of a local doctor instead of the mail-order company. The doctor's phone was continuously busy for a week until he could get it disconnected. Many patients suffered, though I don't know if anyone died as a result of not being able to reach the doctor. The total cost of this failure would have been hard to calculate except for the fact that the doctor sued the mail-order company and won a large settlement.

The Pattern of Large Failures
Every such case that I have investigated follows a universal pattern:

1. There is an existing system in operation, and it is considered reliable and crucial to the operation.

2. A quick change to the system is desired, usually from very high in the organization.

3. The change is labeled "trivial."

4. Nobody notices that statement 3 is a statement about the difficulty of making the change, not the consequences of making it, or of making it wrong.

5. The change is made without any of the usual software engineering safeguards, however minimal, that the organization has in place.

6. The change is put directly into the normal operations.

7. The individual effect of the change is small, so that nobody notices immediately.

8. This small effect is multiplied by many uses, producing a large consequence.

Whenever I have been able to trace management action subsequent to the loss, I have found that the universal pattern continues. After the failure is spotted:

9. Management's first reaction is to minimize its magnitude, so the consequences are continued for somewhat longer than necessary.

10. When the magnitude of the loss becomes undeniable, the programmer who actually touched the code is fired—for having done exactly what the supervisor said.

11. The supervisor is demoted to programmer, perhaps because of a demonstrated understanding of the technical aspects of the job. [not]

12. The manager who assigned the work to the supervisor is slipped sideways into a staff position, presumably to work on software engineering practices.

13. Higher managers are left untouched. After all, what could they have done?

The First Rule of Failure Prevention
Once you understand the Universal Pattern of Huge Losses, you know what to do whenever you hear someone say things like:

• "This is a trivial change."

• "What can possibly go wrong?"

• "This won't change anything."

When you hear someone express the idea that something is too small to be worth observing, always take a look. That's the First Rule of Failure Prevention:

Nothing is too small to be unworthy of observing.

It doesn't have to be that way
Disaster stories always make good news, but as observations, they distort reality. If we consider only software engineering disasters, we omit all those organizations that are managing effectively. But good management is so boring! Nothing ever happens worth putting in the paper. Or almost nothing. Fortunately, we occasionally get a heart-warming story such as Financial World telling about Charles T. Fisher III of NBD Corporation, one of their award-winning CEO's for the Eighties:

"When Comerica's computers began spewing out erroneous statements to its customers, Fisher introduced Guaranteed Performance Checking, promising $10 for any error in an NBD customer's monthly statement. Within two months, NBD claimed 15,000 new customers and more than $32 million in new accounts."

What the story doesn't tell is what happened inside the Information Systems department when they realized that their CEO, Charles T. Fisher III, had put a value on their work. I wasn't present, but I could guess the effect of knowing each prevented failure was worth $10 cash.

The Second Rule of Failure Prevention
One moral of the NBD story is that those other organizations do not know how to assign meaning to their losses, even when they finally observed them. It's as if they went to school, paid a large tuition, and failed to learn the one important lesson—the First Principle of Financial Management, which is also the Second Rule of Failure Prevention:

A loss of X dollars is always the responsibility of an executive whose financial responsibility exceeds X dollars.

Will these other firms ever realize that exposure to a potential billion dollar loss has to be the responsibility of their highest ranking officer? A programmer who is not even authorized to make a long distance phone call can never be responsible for a loss of a billion dollars. Because of the potential for billion dollar losses, reliable performance of the firm's information systems is a CEO level responsibility.

Of course I don't expect Charles T. Fisher III or any other CEO to touch even one digit of a COBOL program. But I do expect that when the CEOs realize the value of trouble-free operation, they'll take the right CEO-action. Once this happens, this message will then trickle down to the levels that can do something about it—along with the resources to do something about it.

Learning from others
Another moral of all these stories is that by the time you observe failures, it's much later than you think. Hopefully, your CEO will read about your exposure in these case studies, not in a disaster report from your office. Better to find ways of preventing failures before they get out of the office.

Here's a question to test your software engineering knowledge:
What is the earliest, cheapest, easiest, and most practical way to detect failures?

And here's the answer that you may not have been expecting:

The earliest, cheapest, easiest, and most practical way to detect failures is in the other guy's organization.

Over my half-century in the information systems business, there have been many unsolved mysteries. For instance, why don't we do what we know how to do? Or, why don't we learn from our mistakes? But the one mystery that beats all the others is why don't we learn from the mistakes of others?

Cases such as those cited above are in the news every week, with strong impact on the general public's attitudes about computers. But they seem to have no impact at all on the attitudes of software engineering professionals. Is it because they are such enormous losses that the only safe psychological reaction is, "It can't happen here (because if it did, I would lose my job, and I can't afford to lose my job, therefore I won't think about it)"?

(Adapted from Responding to Significant Software Events )
http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/35783

A Code of Work Rules for Consultants

I frequently meet a consultant who is deeply troubled by the implications of the work of a consultant. What we do today may affect the lives of thousands or millions of people for many years to come.

Moreover, most of those people we affect won't have any way to relate a discomfort in their lives to what we are doing today.

They will, perhaps, sheepishly accept the explanation, "That's the way the computer must do it," or the even more insidious, "that's the way things are."

Some consultants I know, particularly those working in shops where nobody ever looks at anybody else's work, salve their conscience by sabotaging their client's information systems.

In many cases, it's difficult to tell whether this is intentional or unintentional. In other cases, there is no doubt.

Many programmers, analysts, and consultants have complained to me that their work holds no meaning for them. They don't know what is being done with the piece of design or specification they work on, or they know and don't approve.
Their response is to stay on the assignment, draw their fee, and badmouth their client at every safe opportunity.

I think it's time we stood up to be counted. We have an enormous responsibility to the people whose lives will be impacted by the organizations we work for.
If we don't believe in what our client is doing, or we don't understand it, then why are we working there? To draw a fat fee? Then what does that make us?

For some years now, I've been giving a set of principles to consultants who are seeking a new assignment, or are considering changing their present assignment because of such doubts.

In recent years, as the job market shrinks, the number of such doubters seems to be increasing so I thought that many professionals would like to see these principles written down:

1. I will not work for an organization whose goals are not consonant with my beliefs.

2. I will not work on projects whose goals I do not understand, or cannot agree with.

3. Before becoming part of a project, I must first obtain agreement on what percentage of my time I can (and must) spend on continuing professional development, and what resources will be provided me for that purpose.

4. I will not work under measurement schemes that pit one person's performance against another's. Rather, I will co-operate totally to help others in the project achieve their full potential, as I expect them to help me do.

5. I will not accept work without understanding what is to be done, and why. Nor will I pass work to others without their similar understanding.

6. All my work will always be open and available for critical comments (circumscribed, as appropriate, by security considerations). Furthermore, I will always stand ready to review the work of others in exchange for them returning the service to me.

7. As long as the above conditions are met, I will devote myself in the utmost to achieving the goals of my client and their project.

Over the years, I've found that people who ask these questions and set those conditions don't wind up in jobs that make them miserable. Sometimes, when they ask them honestly they leave their present position for something else that makes them happier, even at a lower fee scale.

Sometimes, a client manager is outraged at one of these conditions, which is a sure indication of trouble later, if not sooner.

Many of us lost souls need some guidance, and it might have been easier to have a set of principles when the job market wasn't so tight. But over the years, I've learned that consultants following these principles are more successful at landing good contracts–ones that make them richer and, more important, happier.

Why Do You Charge So Much?

Randolph's Tough Question

Randolph is one of the sharpest technical consultants in my network. Until yesterday, I'd have bet a hundred bucks that no client could stump him with a question - but I'd have lost.

When Randolph called for a bit of meta-consulting, he was so nonplussed I had to spend three whole minutes in idle chitchat, which wasn't Randolph's usual no-nonsense style. Finally, I couldn't stand the suspense, and I asked, "What's the matter, Randolph?" (Nobody calls him "Randy" more than once. It's Randolph all the way.)

"Why do you charge so much?" He blurted so quickly I didn't believe I'd heard him.

"Say what?"

"Why do you charge so much? That's what he asked me!"

"Who asked you?"

"My client. The new one."

"So what did you tell him?"

Pause. Sigh. Longer Pause.

"Randolph? Are you still there?"

Pause. Finally a weak voice said, "I didn't know what to tell him. That's the problem."

I recognized the problem and tried to reassure him. "Randolph, you're not the first consultant who's been stumped by that question. And you won't be the last."

"But I've got to go back there tomorrow, and I don't have an answer. I need help."

Turning the Question Around

Well, yes, Randolph did need help, and perhaps you do, too. Do you hesitate and stammer when your client asks this dreaded question? Are you ashamed to explain to your employee friends who make one-third of your hourly rate? Do you feel guilty that you make so much more than your spouse, who works much harder than you? And how do you handle yourself when the IRS asks you the same question? Well, I'm your meta-consultant, and unlike your IRS agent, I'm really here to help you.

First of all, I'm going to advise you to meet this question head-on by turning it around. Instead of emphasizing how much you're getting, emphasize how much they're getting. Many clients are unclear as to just what they get in return for your fee. This is not surprising, as your fee covers a wide range of intangibles. That's why you need to break out the various components, which I've done in simple ABC format so you can remember next time you're put to the question:

A. Attention. I suspect my clients would be astonished to discover how much time I spend thinking about them and their problems when I'm not "at work." I might be hiking in the woods, or reading a magazine, or taking a shower, and a thought comes to me about something that will help my client. For example, I was driving back from Los Alamos last week and suddenly realized that I'd spent the whole distance from Jemez Springs to Corrales working out a transition plan for a client in Ohio. I could have been enjoying the enchanting scenery - and perhaps I was. But most of my conscious mind was in Cleveland, developing the plan. Supper had to wait until I had the details in my Mac.

And that's just conscious attention. I don't know about you, but I often dream about my clients' problems, often awakening in the middle of the night with solution ideas. This happens so frequently, I keep paper and pencil handy on my headboard, where I've mounted a high-intensity lamp that won't awaken Dani when I'm scribbling away at three in the morning.

B. Barring Competition. While working with one client, I won't work with a client who competes directly with them in the area I'm working. This exclusivity sometimes reduces my opportunities for paying work, but clients may take this service for granted if I don't point it out to them.

C. Celebrity. As my reputation has grown, I've noticed that my clients are quite willing to use it to sell their product or programs within or without the company. They may not be aware that this use of my reputation creates a risk for me. If they make a mess, some of the dirt rubs off on me.

Ah, I've now run through ABC, but there are more items in this alphabet.

D. Dexterity. My clients unconsciously expect me to be on call, not only for the planned activity, but also for unexpected emergency jobs, incidental questions, idle speculation, and all sorts of administrative work such as rescheduling at their convenience. Moreover, unlike their employees, I get neither sick days nor vacation days. When I say I'll be there- and sometimes when I haven't said - I'm there. Even when I'm not there, I've implicitly or explicitly restricted my other activities so I'll be able to respond to their needs in a reasonable time.

Moreover, although I don't get sick leave, and I don't participate in their health benefits, I'm often expected to work under pressure, at odd hours, in inaccessible locations - all the while operating at top efficiency.

E. Education. Speaking of top efficiency, my clients don't pay directly for all the education I bring to the job - not just my formal education, but, for example, the thousands of hours I spend reading in related fields. I figure that in a typical year, I read the equivalent of two books a week, perhaps more. Very few of their employees devote this kind of personal time to their own development. And, when they take a seminar or attend a conference, their employer pays for them - but not for me. (Well, sometimes they do, if it's directly related to their problem and nobody else's.)

F. Flexibility. My clients can release me in a minute if they no longer need my services. Even in these days of downsizing, they don't have this cheap kind of flexibility with their employees.

G. Gratuity. Although I may charge clients for out-of-pocket costs, such as transportation and hotel rooms, I don't charge for meals, supplies, reasonable phone calls, faxes, mailing, and so forth. All these gratuitous expenses save paperwork for my clients, and they're lumped in with my other overhead - my own office space, utility bills, computers, software, network services, professional services, and the like.

H. Honesty. The work I do for my clients can sometimes literally mean the life or death of a project or campaign. This is a grave responsibility, and I accept it fully and do whatever is necessary to give full value. And, unlike an employee, I offer my clients a money-back guarantee of satisfaction with my work.

I. In-house Labor. Nowadays, most consultants/contractors are paid by the hour, or sometimes the day or week. This method of payment tends to emphasize a single tangible component of what my client is getting - my face time toiling on their premises. If they look at me as simply another grunt, grinding away in their office, no wonder it's hard for my clients to understand why my apparent rate is larger than that of their typical employee. They're missing all the other letters of the alphabet.

ZZZZZ. Sleep. Of course, I do have to sleep once in a while - and, unlike some of their employees, I'm not charging them for this. Even when I dream about them.


So there you have it, my Abecedarian cheat sheet that will prevent both you and Randolph from ever again being stumped by a client's question.

How to get a job or assignment

One of my colleagues recently wrote about her difficulty in landing consulting assignments. She has some great unique models, but, as she says, ...

The Problem

Most large companies (w/ no R-D labs) have the resources to take risks but refuse to.

Small companies have the guts to take the risks, but do not have the resources or the macro set of processes to do it. ...

What do you think?

Some Solution Ideas

It's one of the paradoxes of the consulting business.

Sometimes, the trick is to choose medium-sized companies. :-)

Seriously, people retain your services only when they know you enough to trust you. Consequently, my preferred method has always been to have a stepped-variety of offerings so they can start to know me in safe, tiny steps (books, keynote addresses at conferences, blogs, comments on blogs, ) ...

Then have medium steps (like workshops, tutorials at conferences, ) ...

Then larger steps (consulting visits)

Then really big steps (consulting contracts ).

Then retire rich.

Solution Ideas for Getting Hired on a Job

These days, it's not just consultants who are having a hard time finding the work they want. In the same mail, I got the following email from Liam, a recent PSL grad:

"As you were advising me to start looking for a new job in the Spring of '09 at PSL, you won't be surprised that lost my job at XYZ at the end of last year."

Not surprised, but disappointed. Still, in the long run, these changes usually work out for a much better situation. Losing the job is just confirmation of a lousy situation.

"I am still looking and would welcome any ideas or advice you might have."

The Problem of Getting Hired on a Job

Well, I just finished an email to another grad who's trying to establish his consulting business (which is getting a number of jobs, so there are many similarities). I'll quote what I told him:

Sometimes, the trick is to choose medium-sized companies.

***[Liam: this might apply to job-hunting, too. In any case, whatever you're doing now, change something--bigger, smaller, more or less medium, you know.]

My preferred method, though, has always been to have a stepped-variety of offerings so they can start to know me in

- tiny steps (books, speeches at conferences, blogs, comments on blogs, ) ...

- Then have medium steps (like workshops, tutorials at conferences, ) ...

- Then larger steps (consulting visits)

***[Liam: interview visits, but also visits to help you show off by
doing something for them that's specialty of yours, just a talk, maybe]

- Then really big steps (consulting contracts).

***[Liam: hiring, which is a really big step these days, so perhaps hiring for a trial period, to minimize their risks]

Then retire rich.

Applying My Own Advice

Well, I'm already rich, haven't wanted a "job" for half a century, and have more consulting requests than I can handle. BUT, I'd like to be "hired" more often in my new "career"–writing fiction that entertains while teaching, or teaches while entertaining. I'm trying to apply my own advice to this new situation:

- tiny steps (books, speeches at conferences, blogs, comments on blogs, ) ...

***[Jerry: A book is already "tiny" for your consulting business, but in the book business, that's it! Well, no it isn't, so I'm trying to make samples available (see one example below in the Appendix, my email signature, which is another tiny step) ]

- Then have medium steps (like workshops, tutorials at conferences, ) ...

***[Jerry: I offer workshops and tutorials for writers (writers are a small part of my potential audience, yet can be quite influential). I set up a book table at conferences, where people can actually put their hands on books. I've tried book-signings, but they're pretty painful when nobody shows up. And larger samples.]

- Then larger steps (consulting visits)

***[Jerry: I haven't really figured out how to do this. Well, I've just become a member of Book View Café, a writers' cooperative, where I have serialized one of my books for free, and will blog pretty regularly http://www.bookviewcafe.com]

- Then really big steps (consulting contracts).

***[Jerry: I've had some offers to write books-for-hire, but that's too much like a job. I suppose I'm fantasizing that some huge publisher will see one of my books and offer to make it into the next Harry Potter, but that's just a fantasy. And if they offer me a movie option, I'll turn it down. I used to live near Hollywood, and the smell of it was more than enough for me. (but I do love going to movies, but I saw what they did to the book of a friend of mine--and no thanks. He now wears a t-shirt that says, "Don't judge a book by its movie.")]

Then retire rich.

***[Jerry: You already did that, so take $$$ out of the equation. Write for fun, but get as many readers as you deserve, neither more nor less.]

A Cry for Help

After sending those two replies to my students, I immediately realized I had failed to mention the most important possible solution. (Isn't that what always happens when you hit the SEND button? Maybe I should sell SEND buttons to writers who need inspiration.]

What's that solution idea? Obviously:

- ask your friends for solution ideas.

So, friends, any ideas for my fiction business?

- And, oh, yes, you can ask your friends for jobs/assignments.

So, friends, I wouldn't object if you bought a book or two.

- Motivate them, or why would they want to do it.

Well, I believe my books ought to be self-motivating, but I have to motivate potential readers to actually look at them. So, perhaps because you know my non-fiction, or my teaching, you might be motivated to buy one of my books (either e-book or paperback). And, if you read it, and don't like it, I'll personally refund your money.

But if you do like it, I wouldn't object at all if you told me, and even wrote a review of it for Amazon, Smashwords, Powell's, your blog, or any other place that accepts reviews. If you do, I'll give you the free book of your choice, as a small thank you. Heck, I'll even give you your money back, if that's what you prefer.

And, yes, I really mean it.



Appendix: My Email Signature Inviting Sampling

How to sample my novels (try before you buy):

Suggestion: Go to the CreateSpace website for each of the books below and see a short description of the book.

Or, if you want a sample, click on , then click on a title you're interested in sampling, then "buy" the book and ask to see the sample.

Or, for most of the books (not fully updated yet) you can read smaller samples on my website (below).

http://www.geraldmweinberg.com/Site/eBOOKS.html



Or, if you prefer them as quality paperbacks:
First Stringers: https://www.createspace.com/3463980
Second Stringers: https://www.createspace.com/3464933
The Hands of God: https://www.createspace.com/3466119
Mistress of Molecules: https://www.createspace.com/3390916
Freshman Murders: https://www.createspace.com/3469259
The Aremac Project:
Aremac Power
Earth's Endless Effort

50 more ways to improve your business

Wolfram Arnold writes:
Here are the points I've transcribed from the meeting today. At some point I lost count as to which one was odd and which one was even and I just recorded them all (touch-typing helped :-):

---------------------
Jerry Weinberg 8/20, 50 things to improve business

2. back up everything

4. Rule: do nothing, revised with 3 caveats: a) don't do it if there's someone that can do it better; b) don't do it if there's someone that can do it adequately; c) if it makes me really happy, do it anyway; d) if someone can do it 85% as well as I do, let them do it; e) anything not worth doing is not worth doing right; f) if in doubt charge for sales trips

6. make them pay something, with their time, their money -- if they don't pay for it they don't value it

8. if it's not on paper, don't do it

9. listen to what other people are telling you

10. don't communicate to somebody, but communicate with somebody

11. always have an exit strategy

12. make them feel like your client has a part in the final outcome; make sure they have their fingerprints on it

13. listen for what they're not saying

14. listen to the "music", body language, intonation

15. always be ready to sell your product

16. if you find yourself reluctant to sell your product, there's something wrong with it

17. any successful services company has some fixed priced product to sell

18. given them entry points that they can buy

19. recurring revenue model, e.g. via contract maintenance plans, or follow-through

20. have a follow-through clause in contract so you can know how you're doing

21. charge more money if they don't want you to come back after some time, e.g. 3 months

22. if you just build it they probably won't come

23. manage expectations, book: Managing Expectations, by Naomi Karten

24. Time spent in reconnaissance is time well spent

25. You can observe a whole lot just by watching (Yogi Berra)

26. Go hard or go home; fully commit all resources needed, or kill it mercilessly

27. Commit enough to learn what you have to learn to find out whether it's worth pursuing or killing

28. People who work in an Agile/iterative way often fail to do the discovery

29. Ideas by themselves aren't as valuable as you think they are; don't guard them too closely

30. Nothing is as dangerous as an idea, esp. if it's the only idea you have

31. Never rest on your past successes; there is always something more you could be doing; if you're not learning, you're dead

32. Sharing competitive advantages brings 10-fold rewards; give it away, it comes back

33. Being able to say 'no'

34. Research clients as if you were hiring them

35. Recognize that every client is unique.

36. You don't have to remember everything to succeed.

37. It's ok to let a client go if it's not the right fit; you should organize your business such that it's ok to let a client go, i.e. don't be over-dependent on any single client

38. The best way to build a business is to stay in business; stay around, build a reputation and credibility

39. Actively solicit feedback from clients; actively extract the feedback, e.g. watch the audience

40. Don't be alone in your work; have someone to talk to

41. Honor the people who are your sounding board and bring feedback, e.g. life partners, friends, ...

42. Anything that's annoying or repetitive should be automated or stopped

43. Track your budget & cost every month

44. Don't make mistakes over your budget or your cost.

45. Don't spend your money on office decoration, esp. if your clients don't come to your office

46. Always try someone out before you hire them

47. Don't fall for the big lies: "we're just about to get funding" "our data is clean" "your check is in the mail" "we're going to sign it next month, just keep working" "don't worry about the contract" ...

48. Preventing any one of these mistakes will pay for this conference

49. Double your reading speed

50. Choose not to read a lot; don't read stuff that's not worth reading

51. Stay off Facebook & Twitter

52. Sometimes you can save money by spending money; and sometimes the reverse. Learn to tell the difference

- Thanks for the great job, Wolfram